By Tony Guerrera

Some people say that “draws are death” in no limit hold’em and avoid them at almost all costs, but the reality of no limit hold’em is that draws are a big part of the game. To be a profitable no limit hold’em player, you need to know how to play your draws in the most profitable way possible. Playing your draws profitably means letting them go when you aren’t getting proper odds and getting the best price possible when you are getting proper odds. In this article, we’ll explore the dynamics of drawing in no limit hold’em.

Evaluating How Many Outs You Have

Outs are the magical cards left in the deck that will improve your hand from a loser to a winner. To draw profitably, you need to accurately assess how many outs you have. Suppose you hold AK, and the flop is Q52. If your opponent holds AA, you only have 9 outs…the 9 hearts in the deck that will complete your flush. If your opponent holds AQ, you have 12 outs…the 9 hearts in the deck that will complete your flush and the 3 kings in the deck that will give you a higher pair. The table below gives the probabilities of and odds against hitting a draw with two cards to come:

This table is necessary because the probability of hitting a draw with two cards to come isn’t twice the probability of hitting a draw with one card to come. If you will only see the turn for some reason, you should not go by the numbers in this table. One reason you might not see the river after seeing the turn is that your opponent will bet a large amount on the turn that you can’t possibly call.

If you will only see the turn, then you need to use the odds against hitting your draw with one card to come. For an outside straight draw with no overcard outs, the odds against you hitting your draw on the turn are . If you will only see the turn with this draw, you are losing money in the long run unless you are getting better than $4.875:$1 odds.

One very important fact about drawing on the flop is that if you have a draw on the flop consisting of 14 or more outs (perhaps an outside straight draw accompanied by a flush draw, for which you have 15 outs), then you will hit your draw over 50% of the time (provided that you will see both the turn and the river). If you have 14 or more outs, then you should never have a problem with getting all your money in on the flop. Just make sure that you are honestly counting your outs instead of optimistically counting them. For example, if you have a flush draw and two overcards, you might have 15 outs. However, if your opponent has two pair or a set, then you only have 9 outs.

Evaluating Your Payout Odds

After evaluating the odds against hitting your draw, you need to calculate whether you are getting a proper return on your investment to continue. The return on your investment is your payout odds. Your payout odds will come from two places. First, there’s the money that’s in the pot. For example, if you have to call $5 into a pot containing $15, then you are getting $3:$1 odds from the pot. These odds that you get from the money in the pot are referred to as your pot odds. Second, there’s the money that you can anticipate going into the pot in the future when you hit your draw. Suppose that you need to call $20 into a pot containing $30, but you know that your opponent will call a $30 bet if you hit your draw. This extra $30:$20 that you are getting based on future betting action is referred to as your implied odds.

Your total payout odds will be your pot odds plus your implied odds. Your draw will be profitable if the payout odds you are getting are better than the odds against you hitting your draw. For example, if you are getting $3:$1 payout odds on a draw for which you are a 2:1 underdog, then you should draw. However, if you are getting $2:1 payout odds on a draw for which you are a 5:1 underdog, then you shouldn’t draw.

Knowing your pot odds is straightforward provided that you are paying close attention to the betting action (which you had better be if you are in the game). Knowing your implied odds is a bit trickier. You need to know your opponents well to accurately assess your implied odds. Accurately assessing your implied odds is essential to drawing profitably, though. If you underestimate your implied odds, you’ll be costing yourself money because you won’t be taking +EV draws. If you overestimate your implied odds, then you’ll be costing yourself money because you’ll be taking draws that are -EV.

Maximizing Your Profits on Draws Means Maximizing Your Payout Odds

The issue to be considered when drawing is therefore how to maximize your payout odds. In some cases, you may wish to sacrifice some pot odds in order to dramatically increase your implied odds. In other cases, a line of play that dramatically reduces your implied odds might be highly profitable because of the high pot odds you are getting. At the end of the day, drawing profitably in no limit hold’em is all about knowing how many outs you have, knowing the payout odds necessary to make your draw profitable, and then making sure that you not only get the minimum payout odds necessary, but the best payout odds possible. May all your draws be highly +EV!

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker by the Numbers

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