My Heads-Up Display Part 2: Postflop Statistics

By Tony Guerrera

My Heads-Up Display Part 1: Preflop Statistics detailed the preflop statistics that occupy lines 1 and 2 of my Poker Tracker V3 HUD. This article outlines the postflop statistics that occupy lines 3 and 4 of my HUD. Line 3 of my HUD is dedicated to play on the flop, and line 4 is dedicated to play on the turn. Understanding and incorporating the following statistics into your HUD will make a big difference in your bottom line.

(If you use software other than Poker Tracker 3, you should verify that similarly named statistics are calculated the way I describe them below-don’t just make blind assumptions)

Line 3 (Flop Play):

Fold to Flop Bet (FFB): This is the percentage of times a player has folded to a bet on the flop when confronted with the opportunity to do so. Generally, players with FFBs of 80% or above tend to be fit or fold players who’ll only continue with top pair or, possibly, a very good draw. This statistic is imperative in identifying a key way of exploiting players with high VPIPs and CPRs; simply isolate them and continuation bet them to death if their FFBs are very high. Selectively continuation betting into players with high FFBs will make your continuation bets yield a much higher return. This statistic is also useful when playing in unraised pots from the blinds when you’re seeing the flop against just one or two opponents; when they have high FFBs, bluff a large number of unopened flops-particularly unconnected boards (unpaired or paired) containing at most 1 face card.

Raise Flop Bet (RFB): This is the percentage of times a player raises when facing a bet on the flop. Fit-or-fold players tend to have RFBs below 15, and you should be inclined to fold hands as good as top-pair when they raise (against players with RFBs below about 7 or 8, you should also be cautious with overpairs and bottom two-pair-be aware that reraising with such hands against such players effectively turns them into bluffs). Meanwhile, you should be much happier with top pair and overpairs when raised by foes with RFBs of 20 or above. Bets sized around half-pot can induce players with high RFBs to bluff-raise; take advantage of this with your monsters.

Check-Raise Flop (CRF): This is the percentage of times a player raises the flop after checking. Against players with high CRF numbers, you should be more inclined to check behind with hands in the middle of your range (like top-pair-weak-kicker) because betting with them tends to turn them into bluffs.

Continuation Bet Flop (CBF): This is the percentage of times a player bets on the flop when he was the last preflop aggressor. The continuation bet is one of the most powerful weapons in hold’em. This statistic will let you know who’s abusing it versus who’s playing straight up fit-or-fold poker. Against players with CBF numbers below 50%, be less inclined to bluff-raise the flop, instead opting simply to take pots away on the flop or the turn when such players check. Meanwhile, against players with high CBF numbers, you need to mix up your play, introducing a small mix of flop bluff-raises, turn bluff-raises (particularly against players with high flop and turn continuation betting percentages), and turn or river floats (particularly against players with a high CBF who seldom continuation bet the turn).

Line 4 (Turn Play):

Fold Turn Bet (FTB): This is the percentage of times a player folds when facing a bet on the turn. When combined with flop statistics, FTB helps identify players who are active on the flop who then fold a high percentage of the time on the turn (i.e. the players with low FFBs and high FTBs are prime targets against whom you should be tempted to fire two bullets). Meanwhile, when combined with a low FFB, a low FTB indicates players against whom you can value bet a bit more liberally.

Note that a low FTB, by itself, means nothing. It could be the case that a player only makes it past the flop with very good hands. Generally, statistics describing turn and river play can’t be considered in isolation; they need to be viewed in the context of preflop and flop statistics. As a result, I don’t even include river statistics in my HUD.

Continuation Bet Turn (CBT): This is the percentage of times a player bets the turn after being the last aggressor preflop and on the flop. Simply put, this percentage lets you know which opponents fire two bullets. Against players who tend to just fire one shell, you should be more tempted to float. Against players who tend to fire two shells, consider playing a wider range of hands more passively on the flop, in an attempt to extract the most value possible. Also mix up play with your drawing hands, opting sometimes to semibluff the flop and other times to semibluff the turn.

Donk Turn(DT): This is the percentage of times a player bets the turn when out of position with respect to the last aggressor on the flop. Players with low DT numbers tend to donk bet only with very good hands. Therefore, one use of this statistic is letting you know when you’re in trouble with hands like top pair, overpairs, and even two pair. Like the CBT statistic, DT also helps you know when you should be tempted to semibluff the turn after betting a draw on the flop. DT is also helpful because players with somewhat high FFB numbers who have high DT numbers tend to employ blocking bets. Though these players will make similar bets with their made hands, you should be willing either to call with a range that’s a bit wider or toss in a small percentage of near pot-sized raise bluffs; often, players who like to use blocking bets will fold overpairs and even bottom two pair to raises on the turn.

Float Turn(FT): This is the percentage of times a player bets the turn when checked to after calling a bet on the flop in position. Floating is a very common bluffing maneuver. In fact, it’s an extremely important part of a balanced strategy. However, some players abuse floating excessively. Against such players, you should typically fire 0 bullets or 2 bullets postflop when you whiff. Seldom fire 1 when you whiff, especially with the intention of check/folding the turn. However, with made hands, you should be tempted to bet the flop and check the turn against foes with high FT numbers as a means of extracting additional value.

Lines 3 and 4 help me navigate tricky spots when I’m megatabling because they relate information that’s simply impossible to keep track of. By incorporating detailed preflop and postflop statistics into your HUD, you will make decisions based on refined information. And decisions based on refined information are far superior to those based on rough, aggregated information.

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker by the Numbers, Killer Poker Shorthanded (with John Vorhaus), and Tournament Killer Poker by the Numbers.

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