Simulation #1
- Independent Chip Modeling Part 1: Derivation and Sample Analysis
- Simulation #1
- Simulation #2
- Simulation #3
- Simulation #4
- Independent Chip Modeling Part 2: Positive Chip EV Doesn’t Mean Positive Monetary EV
- Independent Chip Modeling Part 3: Pushing Decisions from the Small Blind on the STT Bubble As A Function Of Stack Size
- Independent Chip Modeling Part 4: Beyond ICM
- ICM Calculator
Simulation #1
| Total Big Blinds In Tournament | Big Blinds in P1’s Stack | Simulated P(P1 Wins) | Expected P(Player 1 Wins) |
Difference Between Theory and Simulation | ||
| 4 | 3 | 0.74995 | ± | 0.00004 | 0.75000 | 0.00005 |
| 6 | 4 | 0.66666 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.66667 | 0.00001 |
| 6 | 5 | 0.83333 | ± | 0.00004 | 0.83333 | 0.00000 |
| 10 | 6 | 0.60007 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.60000 | -0.00007 |
| 10 | 7 | 0.69996 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.70000 | 0.00004 |
| 10 | 8 | 0.79999 | ± | 0.00004 | 0.80000 | 0.00001 |
| 10 | 9 | 0.90000 | ± | 0.00003 | 0.90000 | 0.00000 |
| 14 | 8 | 0.57147 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.57143 | -0.00004 |
| 14 | 9 | 0.64287 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.64286 | -0.00001 |
| 14 | 10 | 0.71431 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.71429 | -0.00002 |
| 14 | 11 | 0.78576 | ± | 0.00004 | 0.78571 | -0.00005 |
| 14 | 12 | 0.85714 | ± | 0.00003 | 0.85714 | 0.00000 |
| 14 | 13 | 0.92855 | ± | 0.00003 | 0.92857 | 0.00002 |
| 20 | 11 | 0.55006 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.55000 | -0.00006 |
| 20 | 12 | 0.60004 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.60000 | -0.00004 |
| 20 | 13 | 0.64997 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.65000 | 0.00003 |
| 20 | 14 | 0.69995 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.70000 | 0.00005 |
| 20 | 15 | 0.75000 | ± | 0.00004 | 0.75000 | 0.00000 |
| 20 | 16 | 0.79996 | ± | 0.00004 | 0.80000 | 0.00004 |
| 20 | 17 | 0.84996 | ± | 0.00004 | 0.85000 | 0.00004 |
| 20 | 18 | 0.90001 | ± | 0.00003 | 0.90000 | -0.00001 |
| 20 | 19 | 0.95001 | ± | 0.00002 | 0.95000 | -0.00001 |
| 30 | 16 | 0.53332 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.53333 | 0.00001 |
| 30 | 17 | 0.56667 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.56667 | 0.00000 |
| 30 | 18 | 0.59999 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.60000 | 0.00001 |
| 30 | 19 | 0.63328 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.63333 | 0.00005 |
| 30 | 20 | 0.66666 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.66667 | 0.00001 |
| 30 | 21 | 0.70010 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.70000 | -0.00010 |
| 30 | 22 | 0.73332 | ± | 0.00004 | 0.73333 | 0.00001 |
| 30 | 23 | 0.76664 | ± | 0.00004 | 0.76667 | 0.00003 |
| 30 | 24 | 0.80002 | ± | 0.00004 | 0.80000 | -0.00002 |
| 30 | 25 | 0.83335 | ± | 0.00004 | 0.83333 | -0.00002 |
| 30 | 26 | 0.86669 | ± | 0.00003 | 0.86667 | -0.00002 |
| 30 | 27 | 0.90002 | ± | 0.00003 | 0.90000 | -0.00002 |
| 30 | 28 | 0.93329 | ± | 0.00002 | 0.93333 | 0.00004 |
| 30 | 29 | 0.96667 | ± | 0.00002 | 0.96667 | 0.00000 |
| 50 | 26 | 0.51996 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.52000 | 0.00004 |
| 50 | 27 | 0.54007 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.54000 | -0.00007 |
| 50 | 28 | 0.56004 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.56000 | -0.00004 |
| 50 | 29 | 0.58012 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.58000 | -0.00012 |
| 50 | 30 | 0.59998 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.60000 | 0.00002 |
| 50 | 31 | 0.61997 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.62000 | 0.00003 |
| 50 | 32 | 0.63992 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.64000 | 0.00008 |
| 50 | 33 | 0.66003 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.66000 | -0.00003 |
| 50 | 34 | 0.68001 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.68000 | -0.00001 |
| 50 | 35 | 0.69997 | ± | 0.00005 | 0.70000 | 0.00003 |
| 50 | 36 | 0.71993 | ± | 0.00004 | 0.72000 | 0.00007 |
| 50 | 37 | 0.73989 | ± | 0.00004 | 0.74000 | 0.00011 |
| 50 | 38 | 0.75999 | ± | 0.00004 | 0.76000 | 0.00001 |
| 50 | 39 | 0.77997 | ± | 0.00004 | 0.78000 | 0.00003 |
| 50 | 40 | 0.79993 | ± | 0.00004 | 0.80000 | 0.00007 |
| 50 | 41 | 0.81999 | ± | 0.00004 | 0.82000 | 0.00001 |
| 50 | 42 | 0.84001 | ± | 0.00004 | 0.84000 | -0.00001 |
| 50 | 43 | 0.85999 | ± | 0.00003 | 0.86000 | 0.00001 |
| 50 | 44 | 0.87997 | ± | 0.00003 | 0.88000 | 0.00003 |
| 50 | 45 | 0.89998 | ± | 0.00003 | 0.90000 | 0.00002 |
| 50 | 46 | 0.91998 | ± | 0.00003 | 0.92000 | 0.00002 |
| 50 | 47 | 0.94002 | ± | 0.00002 | 0.94000 | -0.00002 |
| 50 | 48 | 0.96000 | ± | 0.00002 | 0.96000 | 0.00000 |
| 50 | 49 | 0.98000 | ± | 0.00001 | 0.98000 | 0.00000 |
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