Simulation #2
- Independent Chip Modeling Part 1: Derivation and Sample Analysis
- Simulation #1
- Simulation #2
- Simulation #3
- Simulation #4
- Independent Chip Modeling Part 2: Positive Chip EV Doesn’t Mean Positive Monetary EV
- Independent Chip Modeling Part 3: Pushing Decisions from the Small Blind on the STT Bubble As A Function Of Stack Size
- Independent Chip Modeling Part 4: Beyond ICM
- ICM Calculator
Simulation #2
| Total Big Blinds In Tournament | Big Blinds in P1’s Stack | Simulated P(P1 Wins) | Expected P(Player 1 Wins) | Difference Between Theory and Simulation | ||
| 4 | 3 | 0.75017 | ± | 0.00014 | 0.75000 | -0.00017 |
| 6 | 4 | 0.66679 | ± | 0.00015 | 0.66667 | -0.00012 |
| 6 | 5 | 0.83329 | ± | 0.00012 | 0.83333 | 0.00004 |
| 10 | 6 | 0.60062 | ± | 0.00049 | 0.60000 | -0.00062 |
| 10 | 7 | 0.70046 | ± | 0.00046 | 0.70000 | -0.00046 |
| 10 | 8 | 0.80098 | ± | 0.00040 | 0.80000 | -0.00098 |
| 10 | 9 | 0.89988 | ± | 0.00030 | 0.90000 | 0.00012 |
| 14 | 8 | 0.57106 | ± | 0.00049 | 0.57143 | 0.00037 |
| 14 | 9 | 0.64319 | ± | 0.00048 | 0.64286 | -0.00033 |
| 14 | 10 | 0.71493 | ± | 0.00045 | 0.71429 | -0.00064 |
| 14 | 11 | 0.78608 | ± | 0.00041 | 0.78571 | -0.00037 |
| 14 | 12 | 0.85766 | ± | 0.00035 | 0.85714 | -0.00052 |
| 14 | 13 | 0.92861 | ± | 0.00026 | 0.92857 | -0.00004 |
| 20 | 11 | 0.54988 | ± | 0.00050 | 0.55000 | 0.00012 |
| 20 | 12 | 0.60052 | ± | 0.00049 | 0.60000 | -0.00052 |
| 20 | 13 | 0.65116 | ± | 0.00048 | 0.65000 | -0.00116 |
| 20 | 14 | 0.69946 | ± | 0.00046 | 0.70000 | 0.00054 |
| 20 | 15 | 0.74982 | ± | 0.00043 | 0.75000 | 0.00018 |
| 20 | 16 | 0.79968 | ± | 0.00040 | 0.80000 | 0.00032 |
| 20 | 17 | 0.85009 | ± | 0.00036 | 0.85000 | -0.00009 |
| 20 | 18 | 0.89991 | ± | 0.00030 | 0.90000 | 0.00009 |
| 20 | 19 | 0.94999 | ± | 0.00022 | 0.95000 | 0.00001 |
| 30 | 16 | 0.53224 | ± | 0.00050 | 0.53333 | 0.00109 |
| 30 | 17 | 0.56682 | ± | 0.00050 | 0.56667 | -0.00015 |
| 30 | 18 | 0.60033 | ± | 0.00049 | 0.60000 | -0.00033 |
| 30 | 19 | 0.63238 | ± | 0.00048 | 0.63333 | 0.00095 |
| 30 | 20 | 0.66746 | ± | 0.00047 | 0.66667 | -0.00079 |
| 30 | 21 | 0.70017 | ± | 0.00046 | 0.70000 | -0.00017 |
| 30 | 22 | 0.73319 | ± | 0.00044 | 0.73333 | 0.00014 |
| 30 | 23 | 0.76690 | ± | 0.00042 | 0.76667 | -0.00023 |
| 30 | 24 | 0.79987 | ± | 0.00040 | 0.80000 | 0.00013 |
| 30 | 25 | 0.83359 | ± | 0.00037 | 0.83333 | -0.00026 |
| 30 | 26 | 0.86698 | ± | 0.00034 | 0.86667 | -0.00031 |
| 30 | 27 | 0.90036 | ± | 0.00030 | 0.90000 | -0.00036 |
| 30 | 28 | 0.93325 | ± | 0.00025 | 0.93333 | 0.00008 |
| 30 | 29 | 0.96692 | ± | 0.00018 | 0.96667 | -0.00025 |
| 50 | 26 | 0.52033 | ± | 0.00050 | 0.52000 | -0.00033 |
| 50 | 27 | 0.54070 | ± | 0.00050 | 0.54000 | -0.00070 |
| 50 | 28 | 0.55947 | ± | 0.00050 | 0.56000 | 0.00053 |
| 50 | 29 | 0.57859 | ± | 0.00049 | 0.58000 | 0.00141 |
| 50 | 30 | 0.59966 | ± | 0.00049 | 0.60000 | 0.00034 |
| 50 | 31 | 0.61948 | ± | 0.00049 | 0.62000 | 0.00052 |
| 50 | 32 | 0.63954 | ± | 0.00048 | 0.64000 | 0.00046 |
| 50 | 33 | 0.66012 | ± | 0.00047 | 0.66000 | -0.00012 |
| 50 | 34 | 0.68000 | ± | 0.00047 | 0.68000 | 0.00000 |
| 50 | 35 | 0.69988 | ± | 0.00046 | 0.70000 | 0.00012 |
| 50 | 36 | 0.72033 | ± | 0.00045 | 0.72000 | -0.00033 |
| 50 | 37 | 0.73888 | ± | 0.00044 | 0.74000 | 0.00112 |
| 50 | 38 | 0.75970 | ± | 0.00043 | 0.76000 | 0.00030 |
| 50 | 39 | 0.78075 | ± | 0.00041 | 0.78000 | -0.00075 |
| 50 | 40 | 0.79972 | ± | 0.00040 | 0.80000 | 0.00028 |
| 50 | 41 | 0.82003 | ± | 0.00038 | 0.82000 | -0.00003 |
| 50 | 42 | 0.84022 | ± | 0.00037 | 0.84000 | -0.00022 |
| 50 | 43 | 0.85984 | ± | 0.00035 | 0.86000 | 0.00016 |
| 50 | 44 | 0.88017 | ± | 0.00032 | 0.88000 | -0.00017 |
| 50 | 45 | 0.90029 | ± | 0.00030 | 0.90000 | -0.00029 |
| 50 | 46 | 0.91971 | ± | 0.00027 | 0.92000 | 0.00029 |
| 50 | 47 | 0.94015 | ± | 0.00024 | 0.94000 | -0.00015 |
| 50 | 48 | 0.96006 | ± | 0.00020 | 0.96000 | -0.00006 |
| 50 | 49 | 0.98020 | ± | 0.00014 | 0.98000 | -0.00020 |
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