By John Vorhaus

Playing in a $2-4 blind no-limit hold’em game, you’re sitting in the big blind with 6-5 offsuit. It’s folded around to the button, who makes it $12 to go. The small blind folds, and now it’s up to you. Half of you recognizes your holding as a bad hand — little poison — and tells you to fold. The other half, though, sees the button’s raise as pure real estate and thinks you should call, hoping to hit your flop and take him off for some chips.

Which half is right?

Good question. To answer it, let’s start by asking what type of hand the raiser probably has. We can eliminate pairs as likely candidates, since any given hand is rated to be paired only about 6% of the time. What’s he got then? Unless he’s the most inveterate of real estate raisers, he most likely has two cards bigger than yours. Just for yucks, we’ll put him on T-9 suited. To call now, you’ll have to put another $8 into a pot currently containing $18. If there were no more betting from this point forward (say you were calling all-in) you’d be getting better than 2-1 on your money. Is it enough?

Yes… barely. In a head-to-head showdown, 6-5 offsuit beats T-9 suited just about one-third of the time, so since you’ve got a slight ($2) overlay, you’re cleared to call.

Or are you? Consider the downsides of a call here. First, there likely will be more betting, and during every betting round you’ll be out of position. Unless you hit the flop hard, or are prepared to make a naked bluff at it, you’re probably going to have to check, and let your in-position foe take the lead.

Worse, you’ll miss most flops. And even the ones you hit must give you pause. Remember, it’s not enough just to hit a pair here. Any flop that comes with two or even one wheelhouse card (ten through ace) could potentially hit the hand of a real estate raiser. Unless you get phenomenally lucky and hit something like 6-5-2, you’re probably done with the hand.

And you’ve wasted eight bucks.

Seduced by some raw numbers, you let the fact of your slight theoretical overlay drag you into an undercard underdog situation. Yes it’s true that 6-5 suited is only a 2-1 underdog to T-9 offsuit… but only if all five board cards are dealt. The laws of probability don’t care whether your winning six comes on the flop or the river — but you do care. In most cases if you miss the flop (and you’ll miss the flop in most cases) you have to be done with the hand.

There are other considerations, I know. You don’t want to appear weak, congenitally unwilling to defend your blinds. You might be able to bluff your foe off a better hand. You could actually hit and win. All of these considerations, however, pale in the face of this fact: Small cards are small cards are small cards. Every pot you enter with small cards is fraught with danger. Don’t let raw numbers and slight theoretical edges put you into problematic situations. Remember, if you fold that big blind hand right now, you’ll get another hand right away.

And the next hand could be aces.

John Vorhaus is author of the KILLER POKER book series and News Ambassador for UltimateBet.com. You can find him online at vorza.com.

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