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Wednesday, May 23rd, 2007

Wager on the WSOP

Written by Tom Somach in Poker News

BY TOM SOMACH

If you can’t make it to the World Series of Poker (WSOP) to gamble alongside the world’s best, you can still do the next best thing–gamble on the world’s best.

Internet sportsbook/casino/poker room Bodog (www.bodog.com) has released betting odds for the 2007 WSOP, which begins next month in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Although Bodog won’t let you bet on a specific poker player to win the WSOP main event or any other specific WSOP event, there are plenty of “match-ups” to wager on–for example, from among a group of players, you can wager on who will do the best.

Who will last longer in the WSOP main event, poker legend Doyle “Texas Dolly” Brunson or his son, Todd? Daddy Doyle has won 10 WSOP bracelets over the years but apparently that means nothing to the Bodog oddsmakers, who made the older Brunson a big underdog to outlast his boy. Papa Brunson is even money to last longer, while son Todd is a -140 (7-5) favorite to outlast his old man.

Translation: If Brunson Sr. outlasts his son, you win $10 for every $10 wagered on him, and if Brunson Jr. prevails, you win $10 for every $14 wagered on him.

Johnny Chan and Phil “Poker Brat” Helmuth have also each won 10 WSOP bracelets. If you want to wager on whether either of them or Doyle Brunson wins an 11th bracelet first at this year’s WSOP, you can do so. Helmuth’s the 9-5 favorite to get it, Chan’s 3-1 and Doyle’s 6-1.

About the closest you can come to wagering on who will be the 2007 WSOP main event winner is an eight-way matchup of former WSOP main event winners. Who will last longest in this year’s main event from among past winners Joe Hachem, Chris Moneymaker, Helmuth, Jamie Gold, Greg “Fossilman” Raymer, Doyle Brunson, Chris “Jesus” Ferguson and Juan Carlos Mortenson?

Mortenson is the fave at 3-1, followed by Helmuth and Raymer each at 7-2, Hachem at 4-1, Brunson at 5-1, Ferguson at 11-2, Moneymaker at 11-1 and Gold at 12-1.

You can also bet on which WSOP main event runnerup from the past will do the best this time around–choose from among Steve Dannenmann, Dave Williams, Paul Wasicka, Sam Farha and T.J. Cloutier.

One rather intriguing wager offered by the poohbahs at Bodog is which pair of relatives combined will earn the most money from the main event. Father-son combo Barry Greenstein and Joe Sebok are the favored team at 3-2, followed by married couple Jennifer Harman and Marco Traniello at 5-2, Doyle and Todd Brunson also at 5-2 and siblings Annie Duke and Howard Lederer at 3-1.

Are you a Canadian, like Bodog owner Calvin Ayre? You might want to wager on which Canadian poker player will last longest at the main event. Choose from among Daniel Negraneau, Gavin Smith and Brad Booth.

Or maybe you’re female and want to bet on which female player will do best. Choose from among Duke, Harman, Kathy Liebert, Jen Tilly, Cindy Violette, Isabella Mercier and Clonie Gowen (Liebert the favorite? Hard to believe, but true.)

Other wagers offered by Bodog include head-to-head matchups–who will do better in the main event?–between Raymer and Mike Matusow, or between Helmuth and Phil Ivey.

Bettors can also wager on whether anyone will win more than one bracelet at the ‘07 WSOP (’no’ is an almost 2-1 favorite) or whether anyone will win at least three bracelets (you can only bet ‘yes’ at 15-1).

Perhaps the most bizarre WSOP wager offered by Bodog is what color the hole cards will be in the main event winner’s final hand.

It’s also the only bet that can actually be mathematically calculated, and to no one’s surprise, Bodog plays fast and loose with the real odds.

What color are any pair of hole cards? There are four options: black and black, red and red, black and red, or red and black. Since each option has a one in four chance of occurring, the odds of any option occurring are 3-1. Since the order doesn’t matter and there’s two ways to get one card of each color, the odds of the cards being one of each color are 3-1 plus 3-1, or 3-2. Both black or both red remain 3-1.

Bodog, however, offers only 2-1 back if both cards are red, or both are black, not the 3-1 true odds. And if the cards are different colors, Bodog offers only 2-3 back, not the even money (2-2 or 3-3) true odds.

(E-mail Tom Somach at tomsomach@yahoo.com.)

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